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Yenick gets it

Cycles says: end of this counter-trend rally late Spring, about when the Greenspan Indian Summer gives way to a Bernanke Winter, driven by (a) higher short-term rates and a deeper inversion of the yield curve, (b) coupled with a clear slow-down in US consumer spending due to the cratering of real estate refinance, and (c) possible oil price spike coming from turmoil with Iran trying to switch the oil trade from the Dollar to the Euro, all leading to (d) expectations of a recession in 2007. And when that occurs in 2007, the government will begin priming the pumps looking towards the 2008 election. Coupling that with continued Chinese pumping leading into the 2008 Beijing Olympics should give us a nice mini-Bull run in 2007-2009. Not as good as that 82W5 would have been (or will be), but we'll take it anyway.


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